e universe is a big place, and simply going by the numbers, it seems like there ought to be intelligent life other than ourselves out there some place. So where are they? This is the essence of the Fermi Paradox, a thought experiment conceived of by physicist Enrico Fermi that wrestles with the apparent emptiness of the universe. A new analysis by scientists at Cornell University hints that it might be a long time until we are contacted by alien life and finally resolve this paradox — as much as 1,500 years.
The newly published paper is not introducing new information about the nature of life in the universe, but is rather an analysis of probability. We’ve been looking for signals from extraterrestrial sources for years, but our efforts are lacking due to low levels of funding. Thus, the most likely way we’ll make contact with aliens is if they send us a message directly. Luckily, we’ve been leaking signals into space for years. That’s what the new Cornell study focuses on; the way human communication signals are propagating through space.
Our communication signals have already reached thousands of stars in an 80 light year sphere around Earth. Thus far, no one has sent a signal back. Even if someone is watching the skies intently for a message from other intelligent beings, they’d have to spot us, figure out what the signal was, and then decide how to respond (or whether to respond at all). The researchers took into account something called the mediocrity principle, which holds that Earth is really very ordinary. So perhaps aliens aren’t as interested in us as we are in them.
Combining the equations for the Fermi Paradox and mediocrity principle, the paper suggests that we should hear back from alien life when about half of the galaxy has been overtaken by our radio signals in 1,500 years. That’s not a hard deadline — the probability increases the closer we get to that time. It could be any day now… or in the distant future
Our communication signals have already reached thousands of stars in an 80 light year sphere around Earth. Thus far, no one has sent a signal back. Even if someone is watching the skies intently for a message from other intelligent beings, they’d have to spot us, figure out what the signal was, and then decide how to respond (or whether to respond at all). The researchers took into account something called the mediocrity principle, which holds that Earth is really very ordinary. So perhaps aliens aren’t as interested in us as we are in them.
Combining the equations for the Fermi Paradox and mediocrity principle, the paper suggests that we should hear back from alien life when about half of the galaxy has been overtaken by our radio signals in 1,500 years. That’s not a hard deadline — the probability increases the closer we get to that time. It could be any day now… or in the distant future.